Jaylen Warren — NFL Running Back Props & Matchup

Jaylen Warren — NFL Running Back Props & Matchup

Pittsburgh Steelers Running Back Week 1 vs Falcons

Jaylen Warren player props for Week 1 — Steelers vs Falcons, Sun 1:00 PM ET: FanDuel lines with DraftKings, Caesars and BetMGM prices, hit rates at this week's numbers, 2025 usage and the Falcons defensive matchup. Build a parlay with Jaylen Warren on ParlayBuilder.

Jaylen Warren Week 1 Props vs Falcons

• Anytime TD +125 DK +115 · Caesars +123 · BetMGM +115 scored in 4 of his last 10 games 6 of 18 games in 2025 (incl. postseason) 2+ TDs +900 · 3+ TDs +6000

  The Falcons ranked 6th of 32 against running backs in touchdowns allowed in 2025 (opponent-adjusted; one of the tougher defenses).

  36% model probability that Jaylen Warren scores a touchdown against the Falcons.

• Rush Yards o43.5 -114 / u -114 cleared 43.5 rushing yards in 6 of his last 10 games 11 of 18 games in 2025 (incl. postseason)

  The Falcons ranked 20th of 32 against running backs in rushing yards allowed in 2025 (opponent-adjusted).

• Rec Yards o15.5 -114 / u -114 cleared 15.5 receiving yards in 3 of his last 10 games 7 of 18 games in 2025 (incl. postseason)

  The Falcons ranked 22nd of 32 against running backs in receiving yards allowed in 2025 (opponent-adjusted; one of the more generous defenses).

• Receptions o2.5 -114 / u -114 DK -117 · Caesars -115 cleared 2.5 receptions in 3 of his last 10 games 6 of 18 games in 2025 (incl. postseason)

  The Falcons ranked 18th of 32 against running backs in receptions allowed in 2025 (opponent-adjusted).

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Jaylen Warren 2025 Season Stats & Usage

2025 regular season: 211 carries · 958 rushing yards (59.9 per game) · 6 rushing TD · 45 targets, 40 receptions, 333 receiving yards, 2 receiving TD (16 games)

Postseason 2025: 1 game, 43 rushing yards.

Jaylen Warren took 56% of his team's carries in 2025.

Home vs Away (2025)

Jaylen Warren averaged notably more rushing yards away (71.1 per game) than at home (48.6) in 2025.

Recent Games (through the 2025 season, including playoffs)