NFL Player Prop Trends — Week 5
Hit rates count past games that would have cleared the line posted THIS week; they are history, not a forecast. Last-10 counts span seasons and include playoff games.
Anytime TD: highest hit rates at this week's lines
| # | Player | Team | Pos | Line | Over | Last 10 | Last season | Opponent | Opp rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | — | -135 | 7/10 | 13/19 | Seahawks | 23rd |
| 2 | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | — | -450 | 7/10 | 10/17 | Cardinals | 6th |
| 3 | Puka Nacua | LAR | WR | — | -125 | 7/10 | 11/19 | Bills | 31st |
| 4 | Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | — | -230 | 7/10 | 9/17 | Ravens | 16th |
| 5 | Derrick Henry | BAL | RB | — | -150 | 7/10 | 9/17 | Falcons | 21st |
| 6 | Christian Watson | GB | WR | — | +180 | 7/10 | 5/11 | Bears | 10th |
| 7 | Kyren Williams | LAR | RB | — | -170 | 6/10 | 13/20 | Bills | 26th |
| 8 | Jonathan Taylor | IND | RB | — | -170 | 6/10 | 10/17 | Steelers | 25th |
| 9 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | — | -115 | 6/10 | 10/20 | 49ers | 22nd |
| 10 | Omarion Hampton | LAC | RB | — | +165 | 6/10 | 5/10 | Broncos | 7th |
| 11 | Josh Allen | BUF | QB | — | -125 | 6/10 | 9/19 | Rams | 24th |
| 12 | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | JAX | RB | — | +340 | 6/10 | 6/13 | Eagles | 19th |
| 13 | Harold Fannin Jr | CLE | TE | — | +220 | 6/10 | 6/16 | Jets | 9th |
| 14 | Michael Wilson | ARI | WR | — | +140 | 6/10 | 6/17 | Lions | 25th |
| 15 | Brock Bowers | LV | TE | — | +130 | 6/10 | 4/12 | Patriots | 3rd |
Rec Yards: highest hit rates at this week's lines
| # | Player | Team | Pos | Line | Over | Last 10 | Last season | Opponent | Opp rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Xavier Hutchinson | HOU | WR | 15.5 | -113 | 9/10 | 14/19 | Titans | 29th |
| 2 | Rome Odunze | CHI | WR | 40.5 | -113 | 9/10 | 9/14 | Packers | 23rd |
| 3 | Jerry Jeudy | CLE | WR | 14.5 | -113 | 8/10 | 15/17 | Jets | 1st |
| 4 | Darnell Mooney | NYG | WR | 17.5 | -113 | 8/10 | 10/15 | Commanders | 18th |
| 5 | David Montgomery | HOU | RB | 7.5 | -113 | 8/10 | 11/17 | Titans | 26th |
| 6 | Cooper Kupp | SEA | WR | 23.5 | -114 | 7/10 | 16/19 | 49ers | 6th |
| 7 | Cole Kmet | CHI | TE | 9.5 | -113 | 7/10 | 14/18 | Packers | 13th |
| 8 | Mason Taylor | NYJ | TE | 13.5 | -113 | 7/10 | 10/13 | Browns | 27th |
| 9 | Wan'Dale Robinson | TEN | WR | 32.5 | -113 | 7/10 | 12/16 | Texans | 30th |
| 10 | Colby Parkinson | LAR | TE | 16.5 | -114 | 7/10 | 13/18 | Bills | 9th |
| 11 | Justice Hill | BAL | RB | 8.5 | -114 | 7/10 | 7/10 | Falcons | 8th |
| 12 | Juwan Johnson | NO | TE | 42.5 | -113 | 7/10 | 10/17 | Vikings | 24th |
| 13 | George Kittle | SF | TE | 54.5 | -114 | 7/10 | 6/12 | Seahawks | 4th |
| 14 | Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | RB | 15.5 | -113 | 7/10 | 9/18 | Raiders | 11th |
| 15 | Isaiah Williams | NYJ | WR | 23.5 | -113 | 7/10 | 6/15 | Browns | 24th |
Receptions: highest hit rates at this week's lines
| # | Player | Team | Pos | Line | Over | Last 10 | Last season | Opponent | Opp rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colby Parkinson | LAR | TE | 1.5 | -180 | 8/10 | 16/18 | Bills | 11th |
| 2 | Jerry Jeudy | CLE | WR | 1.5 | -106 | 8/10 | 14/17 | Jets | 1st |
| 3 | Mason Taylor | NYJ | TE | 1.5 | -154 | 8/10 | 9/13 | Browns | 29th |
| 4 | Xavier Hutchinson | HOU | WR | 1.5 | +116 | 8/10 | 13/19 | Titans | 29th |
| 5 | Darnell Mooney | NYG | WR | 1.5 | -114 | 8/10 | 10/15 | Commanders | 25th |
| 6 | Jameson Williams | DET | WR | 3.5 | -138 | 8/10 | 10/17 | Cardinals | 10th |
| 7 | RJ Harvey | DEN | RB | 3.5 | -174 | 8/10 | 8/19 | Chargers | 12th |
| 8 | Tyjae Spears | TEN | RB | 1.5 | -182 | 7/10 | 11/13 | Texans | 8th |
| 9 | Olamide Zaccheaus | ATL | WR | 0.5 | -225 | 7/10 | 15/18 | Ravens | 20th |
| 10 | Marvin Mims Jr | DEN | WR | 1.5 | +106 | 7/10 | 13/17 | Chargers | 13th |
| 11 | Wan'Dale Robinson | TEN | WR | 3.5 | -144 | 7/10 | 12/16 | Texans | 26th |
| 12 | Puka Nacua | LAR | WR | 6.5 | -160 | 7/10 | 14/19 | Bills | 27th |
| 13 | Cole Kmet | CHI | TE | 1.5 | +134 | 7/10 | 10/18 | Packers | 14th |
| 14 | Sam LaPorta | DET | TE | 4.5 | -154 | 7/10 | 5/9 | Cardinals | 27th |
| 15 | Colston Loveland | CHI | TE | 3.5 | -160 | 7/10 | 9/18 | Packers | 14th |
Rush Yards: highest hit rates at this week's lines
| # | Player | Team | Pos | Line | Over | Last 10 | Last season | Opponent | Opp rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Omarion Hampton | LAC | RB | 37.5 | -114 | 8/10 | 7/10 | Broncos | 12th |
| 2 | Cam Skattebo | NYG | RB | 56.5 | -113 | 8/10 | 5/8 | Commanders | 7th |
| 3 | Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | RB | 37.5 | -113 | 8/10 | 11/18 | Raiders | 28th |
| 4 | Brock Purdy | SF | QB | 23.5 | -114 | 8/10 | 4/11 | Seahawks | 18th |
| 5 | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | JAX | RB | 26.5 | -113 | 7/10 | 8/13 | Eagles | 17th |
| 6 | Tony Pollard | TEN | RB | 50.5 | -113 | 7/10 | 10/17 | Texans | 8th |
| 7 | Derrick Henry | BAL | RB | 80.5 | -114 | 7/10 | 9/17 | Falcons | 1st |
| 8 | Sam Darnold | SEA | QB | 4.5 | -120 | 7/10 | 9/20 | 49ers | 2nd |
| 9 | Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | QB | 0.5 | -102 | 6/10 | 7/9 | Ravens | 23rd |
| 10 | Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | 49.5 | -114 | 6/10 | 13/19 | Seahawks | 11th |
| 11 | Samaje Perine | CIN | RB | 14.5 | -113 | 6/10 | 10/15 | Dolphins | 10th |
| 12 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | QB | 9.5 | -113 | 6/10 | 10/16 | Titans | 16th |
| 13 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | QB | 13.5 | -113 | 6/10 | 11/18 | Eagles | 1st |
| 14 | Blake Corum | LAR | RB | 31.5 | -114 | 6/10 | 12/20 | Bills | 27th |
| 15 | Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | 24.5 | -114 | 6/10 | 10/17 | Broncos | 21st |
Pass Yards: highest hit rates at this week's lines
| # | Player | Team | Pos | Line | Over | Last 10 | Last season | Opponent | Opp rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyler Shough | NO | QB | 237.5 | -113 | 9/10 | 7/11 | Vikings | 13th |
| 2 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | QB | 225.5 | -113 | 7/10 | 10/18 | Eagles | 7th |
| 3 | Joe Burrow | CIN | QB | 252.5 | -113 | 7/10 | 4/8 | Dolphins | 16th |
| 4 | Jordan Love | GB | QB | 233.5 | -113 | 6/10 | 9/16 | Bears | 5th |
| 5 | Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | QB | 219.5 | -114 | 6/10 | 5/9 | Ravens | 14th |
| 6 | Brock Purdy | SF | QB | 228.5 | -114 | 6/10 | 6/11 | Seahawks | 4th |
| 7 | Matthew Stafford | LAR | QB | 278.5 | -114 | 6/10 | 10/20 | Bills | 24th |
| 8 | Aaron Rodgers | PIT | QB | 223.5 | -113 | 6/10 | 7/17 | Colts | 26th |
| 9 | Jared Goff | DET | QB | 280.5 | -114 | 6/10 | 7/17 | Cardinals | 23rd |
| 10 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | QB | 239.5 | -113 | 6/10 | 6/16 | Titans | 19th |
| 11 | Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | 200.5 | -114 | 5/10 | 12/17 | Broncos | 10th |
| 12 | Geno Smith | NYJ | QB | 206.5 | -113 | 5/10 | 6/15 | Browns | 25th |
| 13 | Drake Maye | NE | QB | 226.5 | -113 | 4/10 | 15/21 | Raiders | 12th |
| 14 | Daniel Jones | IND | QB | 213.5 | -113 | 4/10 | 8/13 | Steelers | 21st |
| 15 | Sam Darnold | SEA | QB | 231.5 | -114 | 4/10 | 11/20 | 49ers | 11th |
Pass TDs: highest hit rates at this week's lines
| # | Player | Team | Pos | Line | Over | Last 10 | Last season | Opponent | Opp rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | QB | 0.5 | -205 | 8/10 | 13/17 | Jaguars | 1st |
| 2 | Brock Purdy | SF | QB | 1.5 | +102 | 8/10 | 7/11 | Seahawks | 25th |
| 3 | Jacoby Brissett | ARI | QB | 1.5 | -130 | 7/10 | 10/14 | Lions | 29th |
| 4 | Cameron Ward | TEN | QB | 0.5 | -168 | 7/10 | 11/17 | Texans | 22nd |
| 5 | Joe Burrow | CIN | QB | 1.5 | -165 | 7/10 | 5/8 | Dolphins | 3rd |
| 6 | Jordan Love | GB | QB | 1.5 | -102 | 7/10 | 8/16 | Bears | 6th |
| 7 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | QB | 1.5 | -115 | 7/10 | 9/18 | Eagles | 9th |
| 8 | Kirk Cousins | LV | QB | 1.5 | +114 | 6/10 | 3/11 | Patriots | 4th |
| 9 | Matthew Stafford | LAR | QB | 2.5 | +118 | 5/10 | 11/20 | Bills | 32nd |
| 10 | Drake Maye | NE | QB | 1.5 | -128 | 4/10 | 13/21 | Raiders | 24th |
| 11 | Sam Darnold | SEA | QB | 1.5 | -118 | 4/10 | 9/20 | 49ers | 15th |
| 12 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | QB | 1.5 | +114 | 4/10 | 5/16 | Titans | 16th |
| 13 | Tyler Shough | NO | QB | 1.5 | +154 | 4/10 | 3/11 | Vikings | 12th |
| 14 | Daniel Jones | IND | QB | 1.5 | +152 | 3/10 | 6/13 | Steelers | 19th |
| 15 | Bo Nix | DEN | QB | 1.5 | +100 | 3/10 | 7/18 | Chargers | 5th |
Opponent rank: 1 = toughest of 32 against that position and market, opponent-adjusted.
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