NFL Player Prop Trends — Week 1
Hit rates count past games that would have cleared the line posted THIS week; they are history, not a forecast. Last-10 counts span seasons and include playoff games.
Anytime TD: highest hit rates at this week's lines
| # | Player | Team | Pos | Line | Over | Last 10 | Last season | Opponent | Opp rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | — | -150 | 7/10 | 13/19 | Rams | 11th |
| 2 | Tee Higgins | CIN | WR | — | +120 | 7/10 | 9/16 | Buccaneers | 17th |
| 3 | Travis Etienne Jr. | NO | RB | — | -120 | 7/10 | 10/20 | Lions | 18th |
| 4 | Kyren Williams | LAR | RB | — | -130 | 6/10 | 13/20 | 49ers | 19th |
| 5 | Javonte Williams | DAL | RB | — | -150 | 6/10 | 10/16 | Giants | 25th |
| 6 | Davante Adams | LAR | WR | — | +120 | 6/10 | 10/17 | 49ers | 13th |
| 7 | Puka Nacua | LAR | WR | — | +125 | 6/10 | 11/19 | 49ers | 13th |
| 8 | Trey McBride | ARI | TE | — | +200 | 6/10 | 9/18 | Chargers | 11th |
| 9 | Jauan Jennings | MIN | WR | — | +330 | 6/10 | 8/17 | Packers | 31st |
| 10 | Jaxson Dart | NYG | QB | — | +185 | 6/10 | 8/17 | Cowboys | 30th |
| 11 | Chris Olave | NO | WR | — | +145 | 6/10 | 7/18 | Lions | 28th |
| 12 | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | JAX | RB | — | +195 | 6/10 | 6/16 | Browns | 24th |
| 13 | Tucker Kraft | GB | TE | — | +190 | 5/10 | 5/8 | Vikings | 5th |
| 14 | De'Von Achane | MIA | RB | — | +105 | 5/10 | 10/17 | Raiders | 23rd |
| 15 | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | — | -330 | 5/10 | 10/17 | Saints | 9th |
Rec Yards: highest hit rates at this week's lines
| # | Player | Team | Pos | Line | Over | Last 10 | Last season | Opponent | Opp rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jauan Jennings | MIN | WR | 23.5 | -114 | 9/10 | 14/17 | Packers | 19th |
| 2 | Dawson Knox | BUF | TE | 14.5 | -114 | 9/10 | 16/20 | Texans | 6th |
| 3 | Jakobi Meyers | JAX | WR | 37.5 | -114 | 9/10 | 13/20 | Browns | 6th |
| 4 | Colby Parkinson | LAR | TE | 21.5 | -114 | 9/10 | 11/18 | 49ers | 20th |
| 5 | Tyler Higbee | LAR | TE | 13.5 | -114 | 8/10 | 9/13 | 49ers | 20th |
| 6 | Trey McBride | ARI | TE | 56.5 | -114 | 8/10 | 12/18 | Chargers | 7th |
| 7 | Jameson Williams | DET | WR | 58.5 | -114 | 8/10 | 10/17 | Saints | 14th |
| 8 | Mason Taylor | NYJ | TE | 20.5 | -114 | 8/10 | 8/14 | Titans | 23rd |
| 9 | Kenneth Gainwell | PIT | RB | 20.5 | -114 | 8/10 | 10/20 | Falcons | 22nd |
| 10 | Michael Wilson | ARI | WR | 41.5 | -114 | 8/10 | 9/18 | Chargers | 10th |
| 11 | Pat Bryant | DEN | WR | 23.5 | -114 | 8/10 | 9/20 | Chiefs | 8th |
| 12 | Alec Pierce | IND | WR | 46.5 | -114 | 7/10 | 11/15 | Ravens | 32nd |
| 13 | Kyren Williams | LAR | RB | 10.5 | -114 | 7/10 | 14/20 | 49ers | 27th |
| 14 | Terry McLaurin | WSH | WR | 52.5 | -114 | 7/10 | 7/10 | Eagles | 7th |
| 15 | Demarcus Robinson | SF | WR | 11.5 | -114 | 7/10 | 13/19 | Rams | 22nd |
Receptions: highest hit rates at this week's lines
| # | Player | Team | Pos | Line | Over | Last 10 | Last season | Opponent | Opp rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Kittle | SF | TE | 3.5 | -130 | 9/10 | 10/12 | Rams | 9th |
| 2 | Deebo Samuel | SF | WR | 2.5 | -140 | 8/10 | 13/17 | Rams | 21st |
| 3 | Jakobi Meyers | JAX | WR | 3.5 | -114 | 8/10 | 14/20 | Browns | 9th |
| 4 | Dawson Knox | BUF | TE | 1.5 | -114 | 8/10 | 12/20 | Texans | 16th |
| 5 | Jameson Williams | DET | WR | 3.5 | -148 | 8/10 | 10/17 | Saints | 13th |
| 6 | Colby Parkinson | LAR | TE | 2.5 | +114 | 8/10 | 10/18 | 49ers | 24th |
| 7 | Rico Dowdle | PIT | RB | 1.5 | -148 | 8/10 | 11/20 | Falcons | 18th |
| 8 | Cole Kmet | CHI | TE | 1.5 | -138 | 8/10 | 10/19 | Panthers | 12th |
| 9 | Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | 4.5 | -102 | 7/10 | 15/19 | Rams | 23rd |
| 10 | Khalil Shakir | BUF | WR | 3.5 | -130 | 7/10 | 13/18 | Texans | 2nd |
| 11 | Kyren Williams | LAR | RB | 1.5 | -148 | 7/10 | 14/20 | 49ers | 32nd |
| 12 | Chig Okonkwo | WSH | TE | 2.5 | -158 | 7/10 | 12/18 | Eagles | 4th |
| 13 | Sam LaPorta | DET | TE | 3.5 | -172 | 7/10 | 6/9 | Saints | 19th |
| 14 | Travis Kelce | KC | TE | 3.5 | -148 | 7/10 | 12/18 | Broncos | 25th |
| 15 | Jauan Jennings | MIN | WR | 2.5 | +132 | 7/10 | 11/17 | Packers | 17th |
Rush Yards: highest hit rates at this week's lines
| # | Player | Team | Pos | Line | Over | Last 10 | Last season | Opponent | Opp rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | J.K. Dobbins | DEN | RB | 49.5 | -114 | 9/10 | 9/11 | Chiefs | 12th |
| 2 | De'Von Achane | MIA | RB | 66.5 | -114 | 9/10 | 11/17 | Raiders | 24th |
| 3 | RJ Harvey | DEN | RB | 18.5 | -114 | 9/10 | 13/22 | Chiefs | 12th |
| 4 | Woody Marks | HOU | RB | 29.5 | -114 | 9/10 | 12/21 | Bills | 22nd |
| 5 | Kyren Williams | LAR | RB | 55.5 | -114 | 8/10 | 16/20 | 49ers | 14th |
| 6 | Bucky Irving | TB | RB | 58.5 | -114 | 7/10 | 7/11 | Bengals | 26th |
| 7 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | 15.5 | -114 | 7/10 | 10/16 | Broncos | 21st |
| 8 | Baker Mayfield | TB | QB | 15.5 | -114 | 7/10 | 10/17 | Bengals | 25th |
| 9 | Samaje Perine | CIN | RB | 19.5 | -114 | 7/10 | 9/16 | Buccaneers | 3rd |
| 10 | Derrick Henry | BAL | RB | 80.5 | -114 | 7/10 | 9/17 | Colts | 13th |
| 11 | Blake Corum | LAR | RB | 37.5 | -114 | 7/10 | 11/22 | 49ers | 14th |
| 12 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | QB | 16.5 | -114 | 7/10 | 10/20 | Browns | 7th |
| 13 | Chase Brown | CIN | RB | 57.5 | -114 | 7/10 | 8/19 | Buccaneers | 3rd |
| 14 | James Cook | BUF | RB | 74.5 | -114 | 6/10 | 12/19 | Texans | 4th |
| 15 | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | JAX | RB | 33.5 | -114 | 6/10 | 10/16 | Browns | 21st |
Pass Yards: highest hit rates at this week's lines
| # | Player | Team | Pos | Line | Over | Last 10 | Last season | Opponent | Opp rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacoby Brissett | ARI | QB | 221.5 | -114 | 8/10 | 10/16 | Chargers | 6th |
| 2 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | 225.5 | -114 | 8/10 | 10/16 | Broncos | 13th |
| 3 | Matthew Stafford | LAR | QB | 263.5 | -114 | 7/10 | 12/21 | 49ers | 23rd |
| 4 | Jared Goff | DET | QB | 261.5 | -114 | 7/10 | 8/17 | Saints | 9th |
| 5 | Drake Maye | NE | QB | 234.5 | -114 | 6/10 | 14/23 | Seahawks | 4th |
| 6 | Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | 260.5 | -114 | 6/10 | 10/17 | Giants | 12th |
| 7 | Josh Allen | BUF | QB | 220.5 | -114 | 6/10 | 10/19 | Texans | 14th |
| 8 | Caleb Williams | CHI | QB | 226.5 | -114 | 6/10 | 10/21 | Panthers | 7th |
| 9 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | QB | 236.5 | -114 | 6/10 | 9/20 | Browns | 5th |
| 10 | Sam Darnold | SEA | QB | 228.5 | -114 | 5/10 | 11/21 | Patriots | 11th |
| 11 | Brock Purdy | SF | QB | 243.5 | -114 | 5/10 | 6/12 | Rams | 17th |
| 12 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | QB | 218.5 | -114 | 5/10 | 8/17 | Bills | 2nd |
| 13 | Daniel Jones | IND | QB | 233.5 | -114 | 5/10 | 7/15 | Ravens | 32nd |
| 14 | Bo Nix | DEN | QB | 227.5 | -114 | 5/10 | 9/20 | Chiefs | 10th |
| 15 | Jayden Daniels | WSH | QB | 205.5 | -114 | 5/10 | 3/8 | Eagles | 3rd |
Pass TDs: highest hit rates at this week's lines
| # | Player | Team | Pos | Line | Over | Last 10 | Last season | Opponent | Opp rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matthew Stafford | LAR | QB | 1.5 | -144 | 9/10 | 17/21 | 49ers | 22nd |
| 2 | Jacoby Brissett | ARI | QB | 1.5 | +154 | 8/10 | 11/16 | Chargers | 4th |
| 3 | Caleb Williams | CHI | QB | 1.5 | -106 | 8/10 | 11/21 | Panthers | 6th |
| 4 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | QB | 1.5 | -106 | 7/10 | 9/20 | Browns | 13th |
| 5 | Jared Goff | DET | QB | 1.5 | -194 | 6/10 | 10/17 | Saints | 16th |
| 6 | Brock Purdy | SF | QB | 1.5 | +102 | 6/10 | 7/12 | Rams | 24th |
| 7 | Daniel Jones | IND | QB | 1.5 | +136 | 6/10 | 6/15 | Ravens | 7th |
| 8 | Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | 1.5 | -146 | 5/10 | 10/17 | Giants | 12th |
| 9 | Drake Maye | NE | QB | 1.5 | +134 | 5/10 | 13/23 | Seahawks | 3rd |
| 10 | Jordan Love | GB | QB | 1.5 | +108 | 5/10 | 8/17 | Vikings | 1st |
| 11 | Josh Allen | BUF | QB | 1.5 | +154 | 4/10 | 10/19 | Texans | 15th |
| 12 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | QB | 1.5 | +106 | 4/10 | 8/17 | Commanders | 28th |
| 13 | Tua Tagovailoa | ATL | QB | 1.5 | +194 | 4/10 | 7/16 | Steelers | 29th |
| 14 | Sam Darnold | SEA | QB | 1.5 | +110 | 4/10 | 9/21 | Patriots | 18th |
| 15 | Bryce Young | CAR | QB | 1.5 | +112 | 4/10 | 7/19 | Bears | 23rd |
Opponent rank: 1 = toughest of 32 against that position and market, opponent-adjusted.
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